The professional world of political science — the job market, research methodology, peer review, academic writing, the role of formal theory in the discipline, and occasional dispatches from the trenches.
It’s been too long since I wrote to you. I apologize. Lots of the normal and delicious detritus of everyday life, combined with the singularly separate and complementary weight of “original thought,” has delayed me from my typical task of writing to you. I write now, somewhat quixotically, to solve a variety of problems at … Read more
Most of my research starts with the presumption that individuals are rational. By this, I mean that they know the rules of the game, and they also know that the other players are rational.[1] Simple empirical observation indicates the inherent contestability of this presumption. So, why do I continue to adopt it? Well, I have … Read more
This opinion piece in the New York Times, entitled “Why We Make Bad Decisions,” by Noreena Hertz, explores the implications of a well-established psychological/behavioral phenomenon known as confirmation bias. In a nutshell, confirmation bias describes the general tendency to overweigh information in line with one’s prior beliefs and/or give too little weight to information contradicting those … Read more
My last post dealt with my personal conundrum about how best to deal with the problem of “I know these data are interesting, but I don’t (yet) have a theory to understand/explain/”test with” them. I got some very nice responses from colleagues and virtual friends. Thank you. (I have no idea why I get no comments on … Read more
It’s kind of a trick question, exactly the type of gambit that drives both research and blog posts. (The answer, it seems, is “both should magically emerge simultaneously.”) Anyway…I’ve been in a bit of a funk lately, and not the twerking kind. Both the seasonal goings-on and my mind doing laps on a vexing problem … Read more
As Labor Day weekend approaches, scores of scholars are steeling themselves for the “networking experience” that is the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. Of course, the main value of networking is establishing relationships. For example, meeting new people can lead to coauthorships, useful information about grants/jobs/conferences, invitations to give talks, and so forth. … Read more
Paul Krugman recently wrote a post about how/why formal theory has fallen behind empirical work in prestige/prominence in economics. I agree with Krugman that the decline (if one thinks it has occurred) is not due to behavioral social science (Kahneman & Tversky’s voluminous body of work being the most notable of this field). Krugman argues … Read more
Thanks to Kevin Collins, I saw this forthcoming article (described succinctly here) by Omair Akhtar, David Paunesku, and Zakary L. Tormala. In a nutshell, the article, entitled “The Ironic Effect of Argument Strength on Supportive Advocacy,” reports four studies that suggest “that under some conditions…in particular, presenting weak rather than strong arguments might stimulate greater advocacy and action.” This … Read more
I’ve been thinking a lot about signaling lately. The central idea of signaling is hidden (or asymmetric) information. A classic example of signaling is provided by education, or more specifically, “the degree.” Suppose for the sake of argument that a degree is valuable in some intrinsic way: a college degree is arguably worth $1.3 million in additional lifetime … Read more
As a theorist, I write models. (There is a distinction between “types” of theorists in political science. It is casually and superficially descriptive: all theorists write models, just in different languages.) One of the biggest complaints I hear—from both (some) fellow theorists and (at least self-described) “non-theorists”—is the following equivalent complaint in different terms: Theorists: …but, … Read more