…but the notable is frequently unnoted. This post, along with the always thought-provoking repartee with my friend Chris Bonneau, inspires me to write a post about selection effects and their ability to magically turn a mountain into a molehill. The short version of the story is that a brouhaha was breaking out at the University … Read more
Tonight’s Golden Globes reminded me of a point I haven’t seen made (though I am sure somebody has made it). Namely, why do actors and actresses thank a whole bunch of other people when they are on TV in front of millions of viewers who hate watching actors and actresses thank a whole bunch of other people? … Read more
I just finished writing this meandering post about sequential rationality. Subsequently, I thought of these better examples that come from different angles. First, a classic example (mostly) of failures of sequential rationality: food challenges. In most cases, most people who think they can eat that amount of food can eat that amount of food. They just end … Read more
It’s a new year, the ground is covered with more-than-ankle-deep snow, and I told a friend tonight that it seems like, over the past couple of weeks, the notion of a “day of the week” has lost all meaning. This is how winter break winds to a quiet close. It is an opportunity to take … Read more
As most things I encounter, This New York Times story got me to thinking about, well, me. Specifically, the article—discussing the Senate’s attempts to oversee the CIA’s interrogation programs—touches upon two strands of my research that, at first glance, might appear related only in that they both use mathematical models to analyze and characterize political phenomena. One … Read more
I am a game theorist. I love thinking about situations as strategic interactions. As a game theorist, I make assumptions all the time. (And I assume you do, too, in whatever you do. THAT’S META.) In political science, there are, broadly defined and in my estimation, four categories of theory. Game theory (which includes mechanism … Read more
It’s been too long since I wrote to you. I apologize. Lots of the normal and delicious detritus of everyday life, combined with the singularly separate and complementary weight of “original thought,” has delayed me from my typical task of writing to you. I write now, somewhat quixotically, to solve a variety of problems at … Read more
Most of my research starts with the presumption that individuals are rational. By this, I mean that they know the rules of the game, and they also know that the other players are rational.[1] Simple empirical observation indicates the inherent contestability of this presumption. So, why do I continue to adopt it? Well, I have … Read more
I am nonpartisan. I am pro-public service. Stories like this are both disingenuous and unethical. The idea of a public social policy is that those who qualify, ahem, qualify. There is no “well, do you support this policy?” addendum. Prohibition of such eligibility tests, however and by whomever conducted, is the basis of a liberal democracy qua equal protection. … Read more
This opinion piece in the New York Times, entitled “Why We Make Bad Decisions,” by Noreena Hertz, explores the implications of a well-established psychological/behavioral phenomenon known as confirmation bias. In a nutshell, confirmation bias describes the general tendency to overweigh information in line with one’s prior beliefs and/or give too little weight to information contradicting those … Read more