Primaries, general elections, delegate math, campaign finance, field experiments, debate rules, voter behavior, and the gap between what elections are supposed to do and what they actually do.
A dispatch from the road, later than usual. The week covered the launch of the junk drawer series, a USPS post whose central mechanism acquired a fuel surcharge while the post was still fresh, a Supreme Court case in which the drawer breaks, and a Friday post on Iran that staked a prediction now counting … Read more
Yesterday’s post was about junk drawers — about what happens when you ask a classification system to sort an unruly world in real time, and about the organizational costs of pretending the system is tidier than it is. I had barely finished writing it when I came across a news story from two weeks ago … Read more
This is the first of three posts this week on prediction markets. They can be read independently, but they build. Today’s question is about information. Wednesday’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s is about ontology, which sounds worse than it is. Start with a fact pattern. In the weeks surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations, large futures positions … Read more
On March 5, at 4:52 p.m. Mountain Time, Kurt Alme filed to run for the United States Senate in Montana. At 4:55 p.m., incumbent Senator Steve Daines withdrew from the same race. At 5:00 p.m., the filing deadline closed. At 5:02 p.m., Daines endorsed Alme. Jon Tester, Brian Schweitzer, Steve Bullock — none of them … Read more
Regular readers of this blog — yes, both of you — will know that I recently published a piece called “Can a Game Know Its Own Rules?” It was — and I say this as the person who wrote it — very long. I am told it has been read by dozens of people, some … Read more
Much has been made today of Donald Trump’s lackluster fundraising productivity in May. I’m going to pile on here, because his campaign is an absolute fiasco in essentially every sense. In lieu of a full analysis of what this means in terms of inference and prediction, here are three simple rankings/comparisons. (For the full read … Read more
This is a guest post by David Epstein. Picture this: you are on a committee to hire a new CEO for a large, multinational firm. There are a number of qualified candidates, you are told, each of whom has many years of experience in the relevant field, and then you are handed a background folder … Read more
The Democratic and Republican Parties each use a weighted voting system to choose their presidential nominees. This only matters when no candidate has a majority of the delegates, and the details are complicated because the weight a particular candidate has is actually a number of (possibly independent) delegates. Leaving those details to the side, let’s consider how much … Read more
I posted earlier about truels and how the current GOP nomination approximates one. In that post, I laid out the basics of the simple truel (i.e., a three person duel), assuming that the three shooters shoot sequentially. Things can be different when the three shooters shoot simultaneously.[1] Short version: Trump and Rubio aren’t allies, but game theory suggests they … Read more
A truel is a three person duel. There are lots of ways to play this type of thing, but the basic idea is this: three people must each choose which of the other two to try to kill. They could shoot simultaneously or in sequence. The details matter…a lot. I won’t get into the weeds on this, but let’s … Read more