[Edit 10/5/13. Note: When I wrote this, I had not yet read this piece in the Washington Post, which refers to this bill. This doesn’t change the basic math of the post and, indeed, makes its points arguably even more tangible.] A few people (fewer than I would have expected) have mentioned the possibility of … Read more
So, the shutdown continues. Indeed, it seems to me that the collective conscience has accepted that the shutdown will continue until mid-October, when we can get a “two-for-one” CR-Debt Ceiling deal. Kind of makes sense, in a sad way. Anyway, the topic of today’s post is the uncomfortable position of Speaker John Boehner, who may … Read more
The US federal government is currently “closed” because the Democratic and Republican parties cannot agree to what seems to be a Pareto optimal (i.e., unanimously preferred) policy (namely, the government being “open”). I will dispense with current events and turn immediately to the question of “why?” This shutdown is arguably different than the most recent (1995-96) … Read more
So, as you might very well have read (and probably predicted): the House has attempted to present President Obama with the facile Faustian bargain of averting government shutdown by agreeing to repeal the Affordability Care Act (ACA, or “Obamacare”). I have ideas about how this is even more absolutely ridiculous (from a strategic perspective) for … Read more
The Syrian crisis and the debt ceiling/government funding crisis have one thing in common in my mind. Narrative. In each situation, President Obama has a chance to “look Presidential” by being decisive. To be short about it, “Presidents order military strikes based on moral/strategic prerogative” and “Presidents tell Congress that the business of governing goes … Read more
Why did Obama seek Congressional authorization for military intervention in Syria? There are a number of theories, ranging from the facile to the subtle (and probably including the subtly facile). The “best” explanation, from my perspective at least, is that President Obama is signaling something about his ability to prosecute a potential conflict (for example, … Read more
When President Obama requested Congressional authorization for military intervention in Syria, he not only “scored one for the Constitution,” he also—not coincidentally—scored one for his party. First of all, he provided an opportunity for the GOP to lay bare the division within their ranks: on this dimension, there are effectively “I hate Obama, so I … Read more
Politico is reporting that Pelosi has sent a fifth letter urging House Democrats to support authorization for military intervention in Syria: “Pelosi, who says she won’t whip Syria vote, sends fifth letter in a week to colleagues…” The tweet suggests—to me at least—that the repeated (public) calls to support authorization for military intervention in Syria amounts … Read more
Quoting Politico … “[House Minority Leader Nancy] Pelosi said Wednesday at an event in San Francisco she does not plan to whip a Syria resolution when it comes to the House floor…” Leaving aside the moral and strategic questions about the advisability of striking Syria (far beyond my competence), the dynamic unfolding here is intriguig from a … Read more
My last post dealt with my personal conundrum about how best to deal with the problem of “I know these data are interesting, but I don’t (yet) have a theory to understand/explain/”test with” them. I got some very nice responses from colleagues and virtual friends. Thank you. (I have no idea why I get no comments on … Read more