Congress, parliamentary procedure, filibusters, discharge petitions, continuing resolutions, debt ceilings, party discipline, and the many ways formal rules shape — and are shaped by — strategic behavior.
For more than a century, the constitutional status of religious exemptions from childhood vaccine mandates sat quietly unresolved. States offered exemptions — or didn’t — as a matter of legislative discretion. No court had to rule on whether parental religious objection was a constitutional right or merely a policy option that legislators could extend or … Read more
This is the second of three posts this week on prediction markets. Monday’s post was about information — specifically, about what kind of signal moves through a prediction market before an official announcement arrives. Today’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s will be about something more fundamental than either. On April 3, a federal judge in Arizona … Read more
The big news in congressional procedure this week — and I recognize that “big news in congressional procedure” is a phrase that requires either explanation or apology, and I intend to provide both — is that Senate Republicans are planning to use the budget reconciliation process to pass the SAVE America Act, a voter ID … Read more
On March 5, at 4:52 p.m. Mountain Time, Kurt Alme filed to run for the United States Senate in Montana. At 4:55 p.m., incumbent Senator Steve Daines withdrew from the same race. At 5:00 p.m., the filing deadline closed. At 5:02 p.m., Daines endorsed Alme. Jon Tester, Brian Schweitzer, Steve Bullock — none of them … Read more
The Republican Party is in crisis. This year’s presidential campaign is arguably evidence enough for this conclusion, but it is important to remember that there are really (at least) two “Republican Parties”: one composed of voters and another composed of Members of Congress. A split in the broader GOP is troublesome for Republican elites because, … Read more
[This is the first ever guest post on Math Of Politics. If you’re interested in posting on Math Of Politics, drop me an email.] By Scott Ainsworth. To understand the Cotton letter, we need to think about the operation of treaties. Treaties are like contracts, designed to solidify current behaviors or constrain future behaviors for some period of … Read more
The debt ceiling drama is inexorably drawing to its next installment, and the question remains: when and, more importantly, how will a deal get done? To keep matters simple, President Obama and Congressional Democrats have stood by the long-standing pledge to not negotiate on the debt ceiling, but some Congressional Republicans have been pushing for … Read more
So, the Federal Government is once again approaching the debt ceiling. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that he thinks that “…for the president to ask for a clean debt ceiling, when we have a debt the size of our economy is irresponsible. So, we ought to discuss adding something to his request to … Read more
Another quote in this (still) excellent piece in the New York Times by Jeremy W. Peters, describing the resolution to the debt ceiling and funding showdown, stuck out at me: The question so crucial to the Republican Party’s viability now, heading into the 2014 Congressional elections and beyond, is whether it has been so stung by the fallout that … Read more
There is an excellent piece in the New York Times by Jeremy W. Peters describing the outcome of last night’s (temporary) resolution to the debt ceiling and funding showdown. A quote stuck out at me: Others could not explain why it took so much damage, to their party and the millions of people inconvenienced and worse by … Read more