Presidential authority, unilateral action, recess appointments, executive orders, administrative agencies, and the structural tensions between executive capacity and democratic accountability.
Yesterday’s post was about junk drawers — about what happens when you ask a classification system to sort an unruly world in real time, and about the organizational costs of pretending the system is tidier than it is. I had barely finished writing it when I came across a news story from two weeks ago … Read more
This is the second of three posts this week on prediction markets. Monday’s post was about information — specifically, about what kind of signal moves through a prediction market before an official announcement arrives. Today’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s will be about something more fundamental than either. On April 3, a federal judge in Arizona … Read more
A new recurring feature, starting this week. A few items from the news — sometimes updates to arguments this blog has already made, sometimes new events the existing framework illuminates without quite rising to a full post — followed by a couple of things we’re watching that haven’t ripened yet. Everything here is shorter than … Read more
Bismarck is credited with the observation that laws are like sausages: it is better not to see them being made. The remark is probably apocryphal, which is itself somehow on-brand for a quote about the virtues of not looking too closely at things. Either way, the folk wisdom it encodes is real and ancient: what … Read more
It’s been almost ten years since I’ve written here. The last time I posted, Donald Trump had just clinched the GOP nomination, his Banzhaf power index had hit 1.0, and I was calculating the proportion of his campaign contributions that were unitemized.1 That was June 2016. I stopped writing because the general election demanded a … Read more
This post by Michael Moynihan, responding in part to this post by Thane Rosenbaum, asks how “free” free speech should be. The question of discriminating between different forms of speech—based on questions such as “is it knowingly false,” “how likely is it to incite violence,” and “is it political”—is an instantiation of an aggregation problem, exactly the … Read more
President Obama’s SOTU speech has revived interest in Presidential power. Erik Voeten (here) and Andrew Rudalevige (here) argue that Presidential unilateral action has declined in recent years, while Eric Posner argues here that “executive power has increased dramatically since World War II.” The question of presidential power is a classic one in political science. The recent debates illustrate three important … Read more
Tonight, President Obama will deliver the State of the Union speech, or SOTU. The SOTU is an odd creature. It is an annual opportunity for the President to directly address Congress on whatever he wishes—a time to “show his hand” for the upcoming year. From a “math of politics” perspective, there are at least three … Read more
As most things I encounter, This New York Times story got me to thinking about, well, me. Specifically, the article—discussing the Senate’s attempts to oversee the CIA’s interrogation programs—touches upon two strands of my research that, at first glance, might appear related only in that they both use mathematical models to analyze and characterize political phenomena. One … Read more
The Syrian crisis and the debt ceiling/government funding crisis have one thing in common in my mind. Narrative. In each situation, President Obama has a chance to “look Presidential” by being decisive. To be short about it, “Presidents order military strikes based on moral/strategic prerogative” and “Presidents tell Congress that the business of governing goes … Read more