A signal is only informative if it’s costly enough that it can’t be faked. The logic runs through Spence’s job market model, through deterrence theory, through free speech doctrine, through protest and repression, through campaign finance. Posts under this tag are about situations where the cost of the message is the message — and what happens when the cost structure changes.
Why did Obama seek Congressional authorization for military intervention in Syria? There are a number of theories, ranging from the facile to the subtle (and probably including the subtly facile). The “best” explanation, from my perspective at least, is that President Obama is signaling something about his ability to prosecute a potential conflict (for example, … Read more
Politico is reporting that Pelosi has sent a fifth letter urging House Democrats to support authorization for military intervention in Syria: “Pelosi, who says she won’t whip Syria vote, sends fifth letter in a week to colleagues…” The tweet suggests—to me at least—that the repeated (public) calls to support authorization for military intervention in Syria amounts … Read more
Quoting Politico … “[House Minority Leader Nancy] Pelosi said Wednesday at an event in San Francisco she does not plan to whip a Syria resolution when it comes to the House floor…” Leaving aside the moral and strategic questions about the advisability of striking Syria (far beyond my competence), the dynamic unfolding here is intriguig from a … Read more
As Labor Day weekend approaches, scores of scholars are steeling themselves for the “networking experience” that is the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. Of course, the main value of networking is establishing relationships. For example, meeting new people can lead to coauthorships, useful information about grants/jobs/conferences, invitations to give talks, and so forth. … Read more
Thanks to Kevin Collins, I saw this forthcoming article (described succinctly here) by Omair Akhtar, David Paunesku, and Zakary L. Tormala. In a nutshell, the article, entitled “The Ironic Effect of Argument Strength on Supportive Advocacy,” reports four studies that suggest “that under some conditions…in particular, presenting weak rather than strong arguments might stimulate greater advocacy and action.” This … Read more
Did the Senate ironically kill (for the time being) an immigration deal by passing an immigration bill? Arguably, yes. Control of the Senate is up in the air in the 2014 elections. On the other hand, the GOP seems pretty likely to maintain its majority in the House. If the GOP wins control of the … Read more
I’ve been thinking a lot about signaling lately. The central idea of signaling is hidden (or asymmetric) information. A classic example of signaling is provided by education, or more specifically, “the degree.” Suppose for the sake of argument that a degree is valuable in some intrinsic way: a college degree is arguably worth $1.3 million in additional lifetime … Read more
A recurring apparent conundrum is the mismatch between Congressional approval (about 14% approval and 78% disapproval) and reelection rates (about 91% in 2012). If Americans disapprove of their legislators at such a high rate, why do they reelect them at an even higher rate? PEOPLE BE CRAZY…AMIRITE? Maybe. A traditional explanation is that people don’t … Read more
The IRS scandal, and in particular the handling (or, mishandling) of it by President Obama’s counsel, Kathryn Ruemmler, has raised a classic question: what did the President know, and when did he know it? In my mind at least, the question is predicated on the presumption that the president ought to know everything that is going on … Read more
President Obama proposed his 2014 budget this week. A huge document, it contains a number of interesting policy proposals. One that is attracting a lot of attention concerns the “chained CPI.” In a nutshell, this change will reduce the rate of growth in social security payments over the next decade. Overall, the proposal arguably represents a compromise with … Read more