A dispatch from the road, later than usual. The week covered the launch of the junk drawer series, a USPS post whose central mechanism acquired a fuel surcharge while the post was still fresh, a Supreme Court case in which the drawer breaks, and a Friday post on Iran that staked a prediction now counting … Read more
Here are two statements about the same agreement, issued within twenty-four hours of each other, by officials who were present at its creation. Donald Trump, April 8, 2026: “There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried Nuclear ‘Dust.’” Iran’s … Read more
This is the third of three posts this week on prediction markets. Monday was about information — the signal that travels before the message. Wednesday was about jurisdiction — the classification question that reproduces itself at every level you try to answer it. Today is about something prior to both: whether the classification of a … Read more
This is the first of three posts this week on prediction markets. They can be read independently, but they build. Today’s question is about information. Wednesday’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s is about ontology, which sounds worse than it is. Start with a fact pattern. In the weeks surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations, large futures positions … Read more
The Financial Times ran a piece last week reporting that Senegal — yes, that Senegal — had borrowed €650 million through instruments it had not disclosed to the IMF, to its existing bondholders, or apparently to anyone who might have objected. Which, it turns out, is everyone. I clicked on it because it was about … Read more