A week that started with three posts on prediction markets and ended with a ceasefire that may or may not be one. Plus: a poll you took, a court hearing nobody is watching, and a new series beginning next week that Ed. did not see coming. In the News Total and Complete Victory (Fragile Truce … Read more
This is the third of three posts this week on prediction markets. Monday was about information — the signal that travels before the message. Wednesday was about jurisdiction — the classification question that reproduces itself at every level you try to answer it. Today is about something prior to both: whether the classification of a … Read more
This is the second of three posts this week on prediction markets. Monday’s post was about information — specifically, about what kind of signal moves through a prediction market before an official announcement arrives. Today’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s will be about something more fundamental than either. On April 3, a federal judge in Arizona … Read more
This is the first of three posts this week on prediction markets. They can be read independently, but they build. Today’s question is about information. Wednesday’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s is about ontology, which sounds worse than it is. Start with a fact pattern. In the weeks surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations, large futures positions … Read more