This is the second of three posts this week on prediction markets. Monday’s post was about information — specifically, about what kind of signal moves through a prediction market before an official announcement arrives. Today’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s will be about something more fundamental than either. On April 3, a federal judge in Arizona … Read more
Last week’s post ended with a theorem. This one starts with a dashboard. The theorem — Arrow’s impossibility result, applied to the aggregation problem that Simpson’s paradox creates — is on the record in All Measurements Are Local if you want it. The short version: when subgroup results conflict with each other and with the … Read more
This is the first of three posts this week on prediction markets. They can be read independently, but they build. Today’s question is about information. Wednesday’s is about jurisdiction. Friday’s is about ontology, which sounds worse than it is. Start with a fact pattern. In the weeks surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations, large futures positions … Read more
There is a lot of noise about AI safety these days, and I want to contribute to it in a specific and, I hope, useful way. Maggie and I are spending this year at the Russell Sage Foundation working on, among other things, how to make our theoretical work on classifiers understandable to a broader … Read more