The Democratic and Republican Parties each use a weighted voting system to choose their presidential nominees. This only matters when no candidate has a majority of the delegates, and the details are complicated because the weight a particular candidate has is actually a number of (possibly independent) delegates. Leaving those details to the side, let’s consider how much … Read more
I posted earlier about truels and how the current GOP nomination approximates one. In that post, I laid out the basics of the simple truel (i.e., a three person duel), assuming that the three shooters shoot sequentially. Things can be different when the three shooters shoot simultaneously.[1] Short version: Trump and Rubio aren’t allies, but game theory suggests they … Read more
A truel is a three person duel. There are lots of ways to play this type of thing, but the basic idea is this: three people must each choose which of the other two to try to kill. They could shoot simultaneously or in sequence. The details matter…a lot. I won’t get into the weeds on this, but let’s … Read more
This is math, but it isn’t politics. This is serious business. This is the NFL. The New England Patriots won the coin toss to begin today’s AFC championship game against the Denver Broncos. With that, the Patriots have won 28 out of their last 38 coin tosses. To flip a fair coin 38 times and have … Read more
In response to the concerns raised by colleagues (principally and initially in this petition, but see also Chris Blattman’s take and other responses from both sides), I wanted to clarify why I think that delaying implementation of the Journal Editors’ Transparency Statement (JETS) is a poorly thought out goal, one that will differentially disadvantage some … Read more
Hey, long time no see. While we’ve been apart, there’s arisen a bit of a dustup in my little corner of the world about the Data Access and Research Transparency (DA-RT) initiative. In a nutshell, DA-RT represents a movement to continued discussion, implementation, and fine-tuning of standards regarding how social science research is produced and shared amongst scholars and … Read more
Rick Perry’s campaign seems to be a little strapped for cash. But, his super PACs have plenty of money. What gives? Is this just bad management, or possibly a systemic regularity tied to the hot mess that is the race for the GOP presidential nomination? It’s no secret that super PACs have changed the nature of the (early) election … Read more
FOX News just announced the 10 candidates who will participate in the first primetime Republican presidential primary debate on August 6, 2015. The top 10 were decided by these procedures. Given that FOX is arguably playing a huge role in the free-for-all-for-the-GOP’s-Soul that is that race for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, it is important to consider whether, and to what … Read more
The rise of mega-donors has been an important storyline in the unfolding drama of the 2016 presidential election (for example, see here). The presence of these donors in the political game (or at least their visibility) is partially the result of the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United. But more interesting is whether the rise of these mega-donors has caused the … Read more
You know where you are? You’re down in the jungle baby, you’re gonna die… In the jungle…welcome to the jungle…. Watch it bring you to your knees, knees… – Guns N’ Roses, “Welcome to the Jungle” It’s a jungle out there, and … Read more